Due to extreme drought and poor land management practices, the summers of the 1930s remain the warmest on record. Summer temperatures have recently been slightly above the long-term average but below levels experienced during the 1930s, a feature characteristic of much of the Midwest (Figure 2a). This warming has been concentrated in the winter and spring. Since the beginning of the 20th century, temperatures in Missouri have risen almost 1☏ (Figure 1), and temperatures in the 2000s have been higher than in any other historical period with the exception of comparable temperatures in the early 1930s Dust Bowl era. The hottest year on record was 2012, with an annual average temperature of 58.5☏, which is 3.9☏ higher than the long-term (1895–2020) average. Annual average temperatures across the state vary by about 10☏ from north to south. Missouri’s location in the interior of North America and the lack of mountain barriers to the north and south expose the state to incursions of cold arctic air masses in the winter and warm, moist air masses from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest end-of-century projections being about 2☏ warmer than the historical average green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest end-of-century projections being about 11☏ warmer than the hottest year in the historical record red shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during this century. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Temperatures in Missouri (orange line) have risen almost 1☏ since the beginning of the 20th century. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Figure 1: Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Missouri.
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